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Putin ends the interregnum
Tyler Cowen / Marginal Revolution
By Lilia Shevtsova, this is the best essay I have read on Russia, Ukraine, and Putin. It is difficult to excerpt, but here is one short bit: Having flipped the global chessboard with his annexation of the Crimea and an undeclared war against Ukraine, Putin effectively ended the most recent ...
Related: This means war: miscalculations have pushed Ukraine and Russia over the edge
The FT A-List
It is an inconvenient truth for Russia, Europe and the US, but we must call a spade a spade: Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war between sovereign states, even if Kiev is the only government yet willing to acknowledge it. There is evidence of Moscow's direct involvement in ...
Related: Europe's Russian connections
Aasim M. Husain ... / VoxEU
The conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia have already affected the Russian financial markets. This column discusses the repercussions for the rest of Europe of possible disruptions in the trade and financial flows with Russia. Eastern European countries could be seriously affected by a slowdown in the Russian ...
Related: In Putin's Russia, financial plumbing blocks you
Joseph Cotterill / FT Alphaville
Sam Jones (formerly of this parish) writes in the FT about how the conflict in Ukraine has revealed the capacity for a new type of warfare. This is one that has "exploded the notion that expansive communications technologies and economic interdependence were fostering a kind of grand bargain." Against it, ...
 
The Week Ahead: August jobs report
CNBC
CNBC's Sue Herera looks ahead to what are likely to be next week's top business and financial stories.
Related: Galvan Week Ahead - Yellen speech reassures financial markets, while Sir Martin complains about Sterling strength.
Proactive Investors
This Week in the Markets: The chief of the International Monetary Fund (LON:IMF) Christine Lagarde has been placed under formal investigation by French magistrates for her alleged role in a long-running political fraud case, a source close to the former French finance minister said. The source said last Wednesday that ...
Related: EU Week Ahead: Leaders' Summit, Iran Talks, ECJ
Viktoria Dendrinou / WSJ Brussels
Summer is over and Brussels is on the move again. Here are five things to watch in the coming week: EU leaders will meet in Brussels on Saturday to try to hammer out a package deal on the bloc's leadership for the next five years. They are expected to decide ...
 
ECB's Mario Draghi set to deploy new measures as eurozone recovery flatlines
Peter Spence / Telegraph
Weak economic data could convince policymakers to take drastic steps to move euro area states out of the "danger zone" of sub-1pc inflation
Related: Scylla, Charybdis, and the Euro
Paul Krugman / Paul Krugman - Blog
The shoals of debt versus the vortex of deflation.
Related: Prices Threaten Europe Recovery
WSJ
Europe's struggle to prevent ultralow inflation from derailing an already fragile economic recovery grew even more challenging as consumer prices weakened to a five-year low in August.
Related: The ECB and the Bundesbank
Mainly Macro
There can be no doubt that some of the responsibility for the current Eurozone recession has to be laid at the feet of the ECB. Some of that might in turn be due to the way the ECB was set up. Specifically1) That the ECB sets its own definition of ...
Related: Europe Is Not "Coming Together" in Response to the Euro Crisis. Why?
Lambert Strether / Naked Capitalism
Why is Europe re-nationalizing the link between banks and governments? Why has the crisis failed to produce a Hamilton or an FDR?
 
Property prices soar in London's Square Mile
Anna White / Telegraph
Residential property prices in London's Square Mile have increased 71pc since the last housing crisis
 
Richard Katz on the failures of 'Voodoo Abenomics'
Jeff Kingston / Japan Times
Richard Katz, editor-in-chief at The Oriental Economist, is the author of "Voodoo Abenomics: Japan's Failed Comeback Plan," an article published in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs magazine. Katz went into more detail about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policy in a recent email interview with The Japan Times. In your ...
Related: Upbeat BOJ to stick with brisk economic view despite tax hike fallout
Japan Times
The Bank of Japan will probably maintain an upbeat view of the economy at a two-day policy meeting starting Wednesday despite signs of a slowdown due to the sales tax hike, sources close to the issue said. The central bank is also expected to keep its policy steady and continue ...
 
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined to 2.0% in July, Lowest since October 2008
Bill McBride / Calculated Risk
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in July to 2.00% from 2.05% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.70% in July 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at ...
Expand sublinks   Also:  LA Times
Related: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Servicing Rights Values Close Up 0.49% For The Week On Risk In Current 15-Year Mortgage Yields
Donald van Deventer / Seeking Alpha
Kamakura Corporation projections for U.S. Treasuries and fixed rate mortgages this week show that the implied forward yields for 15-year fixed rate mortgages rise from a current effective yield of 3.337% (up 0.02% from last week) to 5.383% in 10 years, down 0.035% from last week. The all-in yield on ...
 
Moral hazard: If you are not taking socially excessive risks, you aren't doing your job
Scott Sumner / Money Illusion
Tyler Cowen recently quoted from a paper by Cheng, Raina and Xiong (in the AER) on the banking crisis: We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the ...
Related: Further evidence that the housing crisis was about screwy beliefs, not moral hazard
Tyler Cowen / Marginal Revolution
Ing-Haw Cheng, Sahil Raina and Wei Xiong have a new paper in the AER, here is the abstract: We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average ...
 
French lessons in how not to run an economy
David Smith
My regular column is available to subscribers on This is an excerpt. Britain and France are two nations separated by just 21 miles of sea but sharply divided by their economic performance. France, economically stagnant, is experiencing rising...
Expand sublinks   Also:  France 24 | Reuters | Guardian | FT
Related: France's economics ills worsen but all remedies appear unpalatable
Larry Elliott and Anne Penketh / Guardian
Beset from right and left, president François Hollande could do with some good economic news. But he is at the mercy of Germany's eurozone austerity drive and Merkel is unlikely to cut him much slack Emmanuel Macron had been in his new job less than 48 hours when he dropped ...
Related: French Prime Minister Seeks to Revive Construction Sector
WSJ
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls pledged a raft of measures to revive the construction sector in his latest overture to the country's business community amid a prolonged economic stagnation.
 
Modi must seize the chance to revitalise India's economy
Hugh Young / Telegraph
Three months after Narenda Modi was sworn in as prime minister of India there are still no signs dramatic reforms, says Hugh Young
Related: The Indian Rupee: New Risks Evolve As Oil Cools And Gold Imports Decline
Sarita Pereira / Seeking Alpha
On August 18, 2014, Brent crude touched $101.11 a barrel, its lowest level since June last year. In H1 2014, the import restrictions drove Indian gold imports down by 77% to 150 tons compared to H1 2013. Last month, Indian gold imports declined 26.39% year-over-year (yoy) to $1.81 billion. Lower ...
 
Spending Falters, but Consumer Confidence Reaches a 7-Year High
Reuters / NY Times
The weakness in spending prompted some economists to lower their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth.
Related: U.S. Consumer Spending Declines
WSJ Economy
Household spending fell in July, a sign that cautious consumers could hold back economic growth in the second half of the year.
 
Inflation Pressure Eases, Letting Fed Focus on Jobs
WSJ Economy
Inflation pressures have eased after a brief run-up this spring, giving the Federal Reserve more latitude to focus on bringing down high unemployment.
 
Will the north follow Scotland and search for greater power?
Robert Yates / Guardian
Leaders of northern England's great cities want £15bn to build a powerhouse to match London. To do that, they need more power. The devolution genie is out of the bottle. The most remarkable thing about the fast train between Liverpool and Leeds is that it doesn't exist. Sure, some trains ...
Related: A 'Yes' vote in the Scottish referendum may well be a step closer to a Brexit
British Politics and Policy at LSE
The likelihood of a British exit from the EU seems to be increasing, fundamentally altering the importance of the independence referendum in Scotland, which happens to be the most pro-European area of the UK. Peter Sutherland comments on David Cameron's repeated missteps regarding the EU, writing that continued membership is ...
 
Markets signaling return of economic weakness in China
Sober Look
In addition to property market challenges and the unexpected slowdown in manufacturing expansion, we continue to see markets signaling a significant loss of momentum in China's economic growth. Earlier in the year the country's economic trajectory was quite uncertain. This was followed by a strong pickup in manufacturing activity early ...
 
FDIC Q2 Banking Profile: A Bird's Eye View On $15.27 Trillion
Value Walk
State of the banking industry - the cup is only half full The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) released yesterday its Second Quarter 2014 Quarterly Banking Profile covering FDIC-insured ...
Related: Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Shadow Banking
Financial Sense / Seeking Alpha
By FS Staff Shadow banking is back in the news. First there are ongoing problems in China where bad loans outside of the traditional banking system are causing increasing financial strain. Then, here in the U.S., regulators are also becoming more concerned about the rising use of leveraged loans by ...
 
If You Want to See Inequality in the U.S. at Its Worst, Visit an Impound Lot
David Sheff / Huffington Post
For millions of Americans a towed car can lead to a crippling spiral of stress, debt, joblessness, illness and, in many cases, incarceration. On a recent San Francisco afternoon, I returned to where I'd parked my car, but it was gone. A "No Parking" sign indicated that parking was prohibited ...
 
Argentina to appeal U.S. judge's order calling bond payment illegal
Reuters
NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Argentina said on Friday it would appeal a U.S. judge's decision declaring a $539 million payment the country deposited with Bank of New York Mellon Corp for its...
Related: How Should Future Argentinas Treat Future Vultures?
Matt Levine / Bloomberg Views
Sovereign bankruptcy! CACs! CDS! Pari passu! Multiple Series Aggregation - Single Limb Voting! Happy Friday before Labor Day weekend.
Related: Structural reform lowers country risk
Christopher Findlay ... / VoxEU
Countries facing rising risk premiums on their debt have recognised the need for structural reform, but some politicians have argued that austerity is necessary in the short run because structural reform takes too long. This column argues that financial markets can bring forward the benefits of structural reform, and therefore ...
Related: A Sensible Step to Mitigate Sovereign Bond Dysfunction
Petersen Institute
Lingering fallout from the debt crises in Argentina and Greece exposed serious flaws in the sovereign debt restructuring process: Small groups of creditors were able to extract preferential treatment and cause serious disruptions for everyone else. On August 29, 2014, the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) released a new set ...
 
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Moral hazard: If you are not taking socially excessive risks, you aren't doing your job
Money Illusion
If You Want to See Inequality in the U.S. at Its Worst, Visit an Impound Lot
Huffington Post
French lessons in how not to run an economy
David Smith
Will the north follow Scotland and search for greater power?
Guardian
ECB's Mario Draghi set to deploy new measures as eurozone recovery flatlines
Telegraph
Putin ends the interregnum
Marginal Revolution
The Week Ahead: August jobs report
CNBC
Property prices soar in London's Square Mile
Telegraph
Expect Another Strong Employment Report Next Week
EconMatters Global
Modi must seize the chance to revitalise India's economy
Telegraph
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Link: Centre for Macroeconomics
Link: Economic and Social Research Council
 
Last Updated: 21:24 GMT     Friday, 31 Aug. 2014 Archive About FAQ Home