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The Greek Experiment
peterradford / Real World Economics
from Peter Radford Let me congratulate the Greeks for taking the first, but only the first, step towards a more civilized economic policy. I am intrigued by the prospect of Yanis Varoufakis as economic minister deep in argument with any of the large number of radicals that infest European economic ...
Related: Greeks Turn to Gold on Bank Bail-in and Drachma Risks
GoldCore / Zero Hedge
The Greek stock market is down over 36% year to date; the risk of global contagion in the event of a Greek exit is very real. Ordinarily such a crisis would require a massive coordinated effort from global stakeholders, perhaps directed by the IMF or some other pan-national financial body. ...
Related: Merkel rules out Greek debt relief
BBC
German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejects any cancellation of Greece's debt, saying banks and creditors have already made substantial cuts.
Related: My Big Fat Greek Debt
Pluto / Firedoglake
Alexis Tsipras is the newly elected Prime Minister of Greece since 26 January 2015. One of the young leftwing radicals of the Syriza party, Alexis Tsipras is sweeping away the age of austerity. He made good on his promises to voters in a startling fashion: One by one they were ...
Related: Greece Signals Unwillingness to Cooperate With Auditors
Niki Kitsantonis / NY Times
The new finance minister said his country would no longer cooperate with international auditors sent to negotiate its bailout.
Related: Paul Krugman: Europe's Greek Test
Mark Thoma / Economist's View
Will Europe pass its latest test?: Europe's Greek Test, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ... Recent events in Greece pose a fundamental challenge for Europe: Can it get past the myths and the moralizing, and deal with reality in...
 
Eurozone deflation deepens in January
Here Is The City
The eurozone has descended further into deflation this month with prices falling 0.6%, the fastest pace for more than five years amid tumbling global oil prices.
Related: It's Not The Oil Price That Is Causing Deflation In The Eurozone
Tim Worstall / Forbes
There very definitely is deflation in the eurozone and that's a worry. But it's not really the falling oil price that is either causing the deflation or something that should be described as deflation. Changes in relative prices just shouldn't be considered in the same manner as changes in the ...
Related: Angela Merkel must accept that her austerity policy is now in tatters | Joschka Fischer
Joschka Fischer / Guardian
Syriza's victory in Greece has produced an unambiguous defeat for the German chancellor and her strategy for sustaining the euro Not long ago, German politicians and journalists confidently declared that the euro crisis was over; Germany and the European Union, they believed, had weathered the storm. Today, we know that ...
Related: ECB will take time to bed in as bank watchdog - Bundesbank's Dombret
Huw Jones and Marc Jones ... / Times of Malta
The eurozone's three-month-old banking super-regulator won't get everything right straight away as it directly supervises big, complex lenders for the first time, a senior official at Germany's Bundesbank said yesterday. The European Central Bank (ECB) became direct supervisor for 120 banks such as Deutsche Bank and Société Générale from November ...
Related: Fall in Eurozone Prices Inflames Fears of Deflation
Jack Ewing / NY Times
With a decline in prices for second consecutive month, what some economists see as a spiral of doom, others consider a break for consumers.
Related: European democracy in dangerous times
FT
Battle to defend the euro is reviving a rightwing language of purity, writes Mark Mazower
Related: The deal that may make or break the eurozone
Emre Deliveli / EconoMonitor
It is no secret that the top priority of the new Greek government will be to negotiate a reduction in the country's debt - as well as to broker softer terms on the austerity conditions forced by its creditors. Until as recently as the wee hours of Thursday, I thought ...
Related: More euro-tragedy
Alasdair Macleod / Cobden Centre
Despite the uncertainties ahead of the Greek general election, the European Central Bank (ECB) went ahead and announced quantitative easing (QE) of €60bn per month from March to at least September 2016. What makes this interesting is the mounting evidence that QE does not bring about economic recovery. Even Jaime ...
 
Oil Price Soars, Rig Count Plunges Worst Ever, But Bloodletting Just Beginning
Yves Smith / Naked Capitalism
The oil industry is dead-serious when it talks about slashing operating costs and capital expenditures. It has to. Preserving cash is suddenly a priority, after years when money was growing on trees.
Related: Energy earnings: How bad will they get?
Tracy Johnson / CBC
Canadian Oil Sands surprised no one this week when it reported sharply lower earnings and a massive cut to its dividend. But as energy earnings season gets fully underway next week, the hope is that report won't be representative of the entire sector.
Related: Oil surges 8 percent as U.S. rig count plunges, shorts cover
Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rocketed more than 8 percent higher on Friday, their biggest one-day gain in two and a half years, after data showed U.S. drillers were slamming the brakes on the shale drilling boom.
Related: Charting the Divergence Between Oil and Energy Sector Equities
Climateer Investing
It's too early for the equities. March WTI $45.15 up 0.62; XLE $74.26 down 0.85%; XOP $44.88 down 0.64%. From Hard Assets Investor: Despite Oil Price Collapse, Valuation Of Energy Stocks Surge A rebound in oil and natural gas is already priced into shares. "The plunge in crude oil and ...
 
Reversing Course, Russia Cuts Interest Rate
ANDREW E. KRAMER / NY Times
The central bank's move, prompted by the country's economic weakness, weighed on the ruble.
Related: Russia's choice: save the ruble - or the oligarchs?
Geoffrey Smith / Fortune Finance
Russia's central bank has cut interest rates by 2% after businesses protested they were being choked. The result is another new low for the ruble, hitting ordinary Russians instead.
 
Fed Flags Midyear Rate Hike---Or Later
WSJ
PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressAssociated PressFed Sticks to 'Patient' Tack on Rate Increases The Federal Reserve signaled it would keep short-term interest rates near zero at least until midyear, while also setting the stage for tough decisions in the coming weeks about ...
Related: "Confident loonies" at the FOMC
Marcus Nunes / Historinhas
In "Why Very Weak Inflation Unlikely to Deter Rate Hikes" we hear the opinions of two FOMC stalwarts: Two central bankers on Friday explained why they both foresee a likely rise in rates despite an inflation environment that seemingly argues against such a move. For John Williams of the San ...
Related: Two Fed Officials: Why Very Weak Inflation Unlikely to Deter Rate Hikes
Michael S. Derby / WSJ Economics
How can the Federal Reserve even think about raising rates when price pressures are falling so short of the central bank's official 2% target? That's been a question on the minds of many central bank watchers, some Fed officials and financial market participants for some time.
Related: Fed-Watchers Look to Janet Yellen's February Testimony Before Congress
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa / WSJ Economics
If Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen would like to start shifting the central bank away from rhetoric that has pointed to a first interest-rate increase around midyear, next month's semiannual testimony before Congress may be just the forum.
Related: 'Audit the Fed? Not So Fast'
Mark Thoma / Economist's View
Catherine Rampell: Audit the Fed? Not so fast: Not this again. Calls to "Audit the Fed" are back. And just as before, they are extraordinarily dangerous to the health of the U.S. economy. First, a little background. Conspiracy theories about...
 
UK banks: painful, persistent, interminable
FT
There should be a time limit on PPI claims
Related: German and British Regulators Examining Deutsche Bank's Controls and Reporting
Chad Bray and Jack Ewing / DealBook
A year after the New York Fed raised questions, the German and British inquiries are the latest to examine reporting procedures at Deutsche Bank, one of Europe's largest lenders.
Related: Circular economy could create half a million UK jobs
Liz Goodwin / Guardian
New report from Wrap and Green Alliance outlines employment opportunities from circular economy, particularly in the north-east and West Midlands We hear a lot about how we are running out of resources, but for many people it is hard to visualise. Sometimes I'm asked: "Could it really happen?" The simple ...
Related: Are British high earners taking the heaviest whack?
Tyler Cowen / Marginal Revolution
Sarah O'Connor reports from the FT: Pay inequality has lessened in the UK during the past three years because the real wages of highly paid employees have fallen more steeply than those in low-paid jobs. While there is concern about high levels of income inequality in the UK, analysis by ...
 
Corruption shakes up China's biggest private lender
CNBC
China Minsheng Banking's president has resigned for personal reasons hours after several Chinese media outlets reported he was being investigated.
Related: China's Self-Destructive Tech Crackdown
The Editorial Board / NY Times
President Xi Jinping's rules for foreign technology companies will create a major rift between his country and the rest of the world.
Related: "Is China Moving to Control the Indian Ocean?"
Climateer Investing
From The Diplomat: USS Carl Vinson and the Indian navy oiler INS Shakti Your Friday China reading: Two fascinating pieces on China's military strategy emerged this week. First, Abhijit Singh takes up the question of China's naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean as part of the PacNet series hosted by ...
Related: China's new tech rules seen bias towards local suppliers
South China Morning Post
Draft central government regulations would force technology vendors to meet stringent security tests before they can sell to mainland banks, an acceleration of Beijing's efforts to curb reliance on foreign technology that has drawn a sharp response from business groups in the United States.
Related: China's Provinces Lower Their Sights After Most Miss Their Economic Targets
WSJ China Real Time Report
Most Chinese provinces missed their economic growth targets for last year, according to figures published Friday, in what would only recently have been an unthinkable event but is another sign of the economy's rapid deceleration.
Related: The Grand Strategy of Xi Jinping
Yoon Young-kwan / Project Syndicate
China spent much of 2014 seeking to revive the concept of "Asia for the Asians" that Japan proclaimed seven decades ago, when it was an imperial power seeking to impose its will on the region. But that effort may not end as badly for China as it did for Japan.
Related: How Scary Is The Slowdown In China? Shanghai Is Refusing To Set New Growth Targets After Reporting A Huge Miss
Tomas Hirst / Money Game
Of China's 31 provinces, 30 managed to miss their 2014 growth targets with Tibet the only one to hit its forecast as evidence mounts that the country's economy is slowing. And Shanghai is now refusing to submit a growth target for 2015, the Financial Times says. This, apparently, is the ...
 
Sergio Mattarella to be Italy's next president
FT
Presidents can be more than just figureheads especially during times of crisis
Related: Italy poorer and gloomier, Eurispes says
Gazzetta Del Sud
Rome, January 30 - A downcast Italy with less to spend and a pessimistic outlook for the future, such that nearly half of Italians now say they want to leave the country, shed a gloomy light on the sunny Mediterranean country on Friday, in an annual report by polling agency ...
Related: Italy books first unemployment fall in seven months
Dow Jones newswires / Business Spectator
Official figures show unemployment rate now at lowest level since September.
 
Japan inflation slows further
FT
Rise of just 0.5% in core CPI suggests central bank will miss goal of 1% for next fiscal year
Related: Germany Is (Almost) Japan: Bund Yield Plunges To Record 0.33%
Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge
At 32.5bps, Germany's 10Y Bund closed at a record low today (within 4bps of Japan's 10Y yield). The Japanification of Europe is almost complete. Charts: Bloomberg
 
India's banks say no room to cut lending rates, thwarting RBI easing
CNBC
MUMBAI, Jan 30- Only three of India's 45 commercial banks have cut base lending rates since the Reserve Bank of India's surprise easing this month, hurting the government's drive to lift business investment. Bankers say the average funds the RBI provides the market has been steady at around 1 trillion ...
 
Inequality, non-linearities & growth
chris / Stumbling and Mumbling
Might there be a non-linear relationship between inequality and growth? A new paper suggests so. It finds that "there is a range of values of changes in inequality where the link [with GDP growth] is weak", but that big reductions...
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Related: Mitt Romney Isn't Running for President. That's Bad News for Income Inequality.
Danny Vinik / New Republic
Mitt Romney is not running for president. Right-wing radio host Hugh Hewitt broke the news Friday morning that the 2012 Republican nominee won't seek the presid
 
The role of demography in explaining secular stagnation
Axel Gottfries, Coen Teulings / VoxEU
The secular stagnation hypothesis has gained traction in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column argues that demography has played an important role in reducing the interest rates. The increase in life expectancy, which has not been offset by an increase in the retirement age, has led to an ...
Related: A new Vox Debate on Secular Stagnation
Coen Teulings / VoxEU
To many observers, the long-lasting, underwhelming performance of growth, employment and investment suggests that something fundamental has changed with the way advanced economies' macroeconomies are working. One leading explanation - the notion of 'Secular Stagnation' - has gained traction among some economists and policymakers while being rejected by others. This ...
 
Bank portfolio choice and the macroeconomy
Yunus Aksoy, Henrique Basso / VoxEU
Banking activities have received increasing attention in the aftermath of the Crisis. This column focuses on the effects of bank portfolio choice on asset prices. The term spread is strongly influenced by banks' expectations of their future profitability. Banks funding activities, through the securitisation market, create conditions for higher leverage ...
 
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Sergio Mattarella to be Italy's next president
FT
Corruption shakes up China's biggest private lender
CNBC
Reversing Course, Russia Cuts Interest Rate
NY Times
Oil Price Soars, Rig Count Plunges Worst Ever, But Bloodletting Just Beginning
Naked Capitalism
Eurozone deflation deepens in January
Here Is The City
The Greek Experiment
Real World Economics
Merkel rules out Greek debt relief
BBC
Oil surges 8 percent as U.S. rig count plunges, shorts cover
Reuters
Italy poorer and gloomier, Eurispes says
Gazzetta Del Sud
UK banks: painful, persistent, interminable
FT
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Link: Centre for Macroeconomics
Link: Economic and Social Research Council
 
Last Updated: 14:31 GMT     Saturday, 31 Jan. 2015 Archive About FAQ Home