Last Updated: 06:56 GMT     Wednesday, 3 Sep. 2014 Archive About FAQ Home
Banner: MacroDigest
Solid Start to September
Tim Duy / Fed Watch
The ISM manufacturing report came in ahead of expectations with the strongest number since 2011: Moreover, strength was evident throughout the internal components: Note too that the report is consistent with other manufacturing numbers: If this is a taste of the data to expect this fall, it is tough to ...
Related: Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence
Marc to Market
This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It depicts the US manufacturing PMI (white line) and the eurozone manufacturing ISM (yellow line). There has been a clear divergence since the start of the year. Briefly, in January, the eurozone reading rose above the US. This had not happened before, though ...
Related: ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in August
Bill McBride / Calculated Risk
The ISM manufacturing index suggests faster expansion in August than in July. The PMI was at 59.0% in August, up from 57.1% in July. The employment index was at 58.1%, down slightly from 58.2% in July, and the new orders index was at 66.7%, up from 63.4% in July.From the ...
Russian rouble hits record low as suffocating sanctions loom
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard / Telegraph
Russia's currency has dropped 25pc over the past 18 months but Vladmimir Putin shows no signs of backing down over Ukraine
Related: The Dying Russians
Masha Gessen / NY Review of Books
Masha Gessen Sometime in 1993, after several trips to Russia, I noticed something bizarre and disturbing: people kept dying. I was used to losing friends to AIDS in the United States, but this was different. People in Russia were dying suddenly and violently, and their own friends and colleagues did ...
Related: Punching Back at Putin
The Editors / Bloomberg Views
The next round of sanctions illustrate Europe's resolve to defend its security rather than its reluctance to do so.
Related: IMF: Ukraine may need another bailout due to war
Associated Press
BRUSSELS (AP) - The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine will need billions of dollars in additional support if the fighting between the military and Russian-backed separatists in the country's east persists.
Related: How Europe's slump could doom Ukraine
Even Germany, whose economy powered the Europe's tepid recovery, is slipping, and Ukraine could suffer, The Fiscal Times reports.
Fed: US consumers have decided to 'hoard money'
One of the mysteries of the post-crisis world is why the U.S. has lacked inflation despite all the money being pumped in.
Related: Yellen's labor gauges
Steve Liesman
CNBC's Steve Liesman discusses expectations for Friday's jobs data and how it may impact the Fed's timetable for raising interest rates.
Related: CBO, Fed Growth Forecasts Unattainable, Northwestern's Gordon Says
Jon Hilsenrath / WSJ Economics
The Congressional Budget Office's projection of modest annual U.S. output growth of 2.2% in the coming decade is unattainable, as is the Federal Reserve's expectation of growth near 3% in the next two years, according to a new paper by Northwestern University economics professor Robert Gordon.
Related: Fed Positioning to Normalize Policy
Tim Duy / Fed Watch
With the leaves turning to gold signalling the end of summer, so too will the Fed be facing its own change of seasons as quantitative easing comes to an end. With asset purchases likely ending in October, time is growing short for the Fed to communicate a plan for the ...
Easy Money Failing to Spur Turnaround for Europe
Jack Ewing / NY Times
The European Central Bank's negative rates strategy has not worked as planned, which is why it is under increasing pressure to try something else.
Related: Fisher Effect & Euro Crisis
Angry Bear
The ECB raised its benchmark rate in 2011 from 1.0% to 1.5%. Since then the rate has moved down to 0.15%. After their benchmark rate was raised in 2011, the Euro area went into a recession. Did the ECB cause the recession by raising their benchmark nominal rate? Some say ...
Related: ECB Preview: Further Measures Will Be A Close Call
Chiara Albanese / MoneyBeat
Market expectations for action, or at least heavy hints at action from the European Central Bank this week are running high.
Related: Back to School For the Euro
Erik Swarts / Market Anthropology
For lack of a better name, we call it Sunday night feeling in our house. It usually hits the kids around two or three in the afternoon and spreads with doleful interactions up the chain of command, eventually reaching its peak just before dinner. "I don't want to go to ...
Related: Rekindling Europe's repackaged debt market will take years
* IOSCO's Medcraft says tarnished sector needs re-inventing
Scottish independence could kill the EU referendum
Mats Persson / Telegraph
Some commentators have argued that if Scotland votes to leave the Union, it would trigger a chain reaction that also will lead to the UK - or the rest of the UK (rUK) - leaving the EU. First, the argument goes, without Scottish MPs, the chances of the Eurosceptic Conservatives ...
Expand sublinks   Also:  Globe and Mail | FT | FT | Guardian | Telegraph | FT | BBC | Sky | BBC | Telegraph
Related: Scottish 'yes' vote could mean Lloyds heads south
The Times
The owner of Bank of Scotland is considering moving its registered office from Edinburgh to London if Scots vote for...
Related: Scotland Is Inching Out of U.K.
Mark Gilbert / Bloomberg Views
A schism on Sept. 18 might be the best way for Scotland to stay in the European Union, and make it more likely that the rest of the U.K. disembarks.
Related: Hedging against a Scottish Yes vote
The uncertainty of drawn-out independence negotiations if Scotland votes to leave the UK would be horrible for investors in British assets
Related: Scottish independence: Four reasons why the narrowing gap is significant
Alberto Nardelli / Guardian
A Scottish independence referendum poll by YouGov has the no lead down to six points from more than 20 in early August. Is it game on in Scotland? A poll released on monday evening by YouGov shows the no (to independence) lead collapsing to only six points. In early August ...
China Re-balance: A Better Case Scenario
Dian Chu / EconMatters Global
By Michael PettisI have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China's economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much more controlled process we see in China. ...
Related: Actually, the Chinese Can Do the High-Skilled Jobs at Lower Cost Too
Joe Nocera had a good piece discussing the plight of factory workers in the United States subjected to low cost competition from China and other developing countries. He argues that the government has done too little to help the workers and the communities that have suffered from such competition. However ...
Related: Baby Boom or Economy Bust: Stern Warnings About China's Falling Fertility Rate
WSJ China Real Time Report
China needs a baby boom-and badly, researchers say.
Related: China Fights Local Budget Corruption With New 'Economic Constitution'
Business Week
Under the new rules, localities in China can finally issue their own municipal bonds to raise money
Three reasons why Shinzo Abe thinks women will save Japan's economy
Lauren Davidson / Telegraph
Japan's prime minister is working on an ambitious overhaul of the Japanese economy. Is now really the right time to focus on promoting women in parliament?
Related: Japan Inc. Starting to Embrace Debt Again
Some Japanese companies are showing signs of using their capital more efficiently, a factor that is drawing the attention of some investors despite a weak domestic economy.
Related: Is Japan's Aging Population Really Going to Shrink Into Oblivion?
That's what a Reuters story on the NYT website said Japanese leaders are troubled by. The piece told readers: "Policymakers are also pledging to draft a vision of how to keep Japan's ageing population from shrinking into oblivion, holding the line at 100 million in 2060, a 20 percent drop ...
Related: Modi Wants Close Japan Ties to Counter China
The leaders of Japan and India pledged to step up defense and economic cooperation as the two Asian powers aim to build a strategic counterweight to China.
For Britain to win the race for growth, we need better connections to growth markets
John Holland-Kaye / Telegraph
The chief executive of Heathrow Airport sees eye to eye with Boris Johnson on almost everything other than where to build Britain's next big runway
Related: Britain's Great Unraveling
Andrew Hammond / Foreign Policy
Why 2015 could be the end of the United Kingdom as we know it.
Related: British technology's biggest risk: A skills shortage
Here Is The City
Britain's capital has firmly established itself on the global tech scene, but there remain some risks to its upward trajectory.
Related: Sterling tumbles as poll puts Yes campaign within 'touching distance of victory'
Szu Ping Chan / Telegraph
Analysts say sterling could fall further in the run-up to Scotland's independence vote on September 18
Related: Boris Johnson: Cameron must stick to Heathrow manifesto pledge
Nathalie Thomas / Telegraph
London's Mayor says other politicans need to come out of their "fox holes" on airports policy and issues a stern reminder to the Prime Minister that he was elected on a pledge not to expand Heathrow airport
Guest post: Is the BRIC rise over, as growth rates slide?
Guest Writer / Beyond BRICs
By Jim O'Neill, Bruegel Is it all over for the rise of the BRIC grouping (Brazil, Russia, India and China)? On one level, this seems like a rather odd time to be asking such a question, especially when the political leaders of the BRICS countries (the four named above plus ...
Hong Kong Democracy Movement Loses Steam
NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsHong Kong Democracy Movement Loses Steam An activist group at the center of threats to paralyze Hong Kong's business district with anti-Beijing protests said some of its support was waning.Bloomberg NewsHong Kong Democracy Movement Loses Steam An activist group ...
Related: Report: Hong Kong Becoming 'Mere Second-Tier' Chinese City
Rachel Lu / Foreign Policy
The financial center's specialness is in ever-greater danger.
Related: China Slaps Hong Kong, Taiwan Reels
Noah Feldman / Bloomberg Views
The message China's leaders sent when they announced that they would have to approve any future elected leaders of Hong Kong should be heard loud and clear -- not as much in Hong Kong as in Taiwan, where it really matters.
Related: Hong Kong's Democracy Dilemma
Beijing's plan to control elections in Hong Kong has opened a new era of civil disobedience.
Teaching Economic Dynamism
Edmund S. Phelps / Project Syndicate
Business leaders often argue that the widening education gap - the disparity between what young people learn and the skills that the job market demands - is a leading contributor to high unemployment and slow growth in many countries. But the two main arguments underpinning that claim are weak, at ...
How to Eliminate the Scourge of Unemployment: Jobs Now at a Living Wage
L. Randall Wray / EconoMonitor
It is amazing no one has thought of this before. Seven years after the GFC began, we've still got up to 25 million people who want jobs but cannot find them. Of course that's far more than the official unemployment numbers-which don't count anyone who worked just an hour or ...
India Needs More Banks, Not Just Bank Accounts
Dhiraj Nayyar / Bloomberg Views
India's Narendra Modi wants to bring bank accounts to 800 million people. Why he's going about it the wrong way.
Related: Visiting Japan, India's Modi Pokes at China
Business Week
In meeting with Narendra Modi, Japan's Shinzo Abe offers to loan India $480 million for infrastructure projects in hopes of strengthening ties to counter China
Related: Chart Of The Week: India's Growth Rebound A Promising Start
Fathom Consulting / Alpha Now
The pick-up in India's GDP growth during the second quarter of this year is encouraging. It points to incipient signs of a domestically-led recovery and confirms the positive momentum witnessed in recent months across a wide range of soft and hard data. But it is probably too early to say ...
Related: Guest post: UK investors dive into Indian debt
Guest Writer / Beyond BRICs
By Ian Dixon of Investec Following his government's first budget there has been much debate about the amount of change Narendra Modi, India's new prime minister, will be able or willing to achieve. His supporters counter such scepticism by arguing that the government is just three months old and to ...
Related: Why India's Modi and Japan's Abe Need Each Other - Badly
Charlie Campbell / Time
The two Asian leaders are looking to strengthen ties during their meetings in Japan to counter a rising China
Same old story - poor getting poorer and more indebted and the rich ...
Bill Mitchell
I have started to research the idea of the disappearing or shrinking middle class as part of a book project (for 2015) I am amassing materials for. The idea is simple but the conceptualisation and demarcation of the idea is ... Read the rest of this entry ...
Related: America's growing food inequality problem
Roberto A. Ferdman / Wonkblog
Income inequality isn't the only gap the U.S. needs to mind these days; the country is amassing a sad and expensive discrepancy between what its poor and rich eat. America's wealthiest people are eating better, while its poorest are eating worse, concludes a new study published this week in The ...
Related: Joseph Stiglitz: The Costs of Inequality
Jesse / Jesse's Café Américain
"There are two visions of America a half century from now. One is of a society more divided between the haves and the have-nots, a country in which the rich live in gated communities, send their children to expensive schools, and have access to first-rate medical care. Meanwhile, the rest ...
Magic Fairies Cause Recessions
Noah Smith / Bloomberg Views
Saying that something akin to magic fairies causes recessions isn't a very satisfactory explanation.
Follow MacroDigest on Twitter
Easy Money Failing to Spur Turnaround for Europe
NY Times
Hong Kong Democracy Movement Loses Steam
Russian rouble hits record low as suffocating sanctions loom
Solid Start to September
Fed Watch
Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence
Marc to Market
Guest post: Is the BRIC rise over, as growth rates slide?
Beyond BRICs
Three reasons why Shinzo Abe thinks women will save Japan's economy
Fed: US consumers have decided to 'hoard money'
ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in August
Calculated Risk
Magic Fairies Cause Recessions
Bloomberg Views
What's this?
Link: Centre for Macroeconomics
Link: Economic and Social Research Council
Last Updated: 15:50 GMT     Tuesday, 3 Sep. 2014 Archive About FAQ Home