The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.6% in September.
This paper studies the effects of maritime chokepoint disruptions on U.S. inflation and their implications for monetary policy.
On the map → Strait of Hormuz
Comments from the ECB’s Lane on inflation and policy guidance crossed the wires. We put a very high premium on consensus, would be difficult with dots. I would put high bar on directional forward guidance now. Important that ECB has an instrument for multiple equilibriums on bond market. Informative that underlying inflation hasn’t moved yet, it means it’s the usual delayed response. Underlying inflation is a guide to 1-year-ahead inflation. Energy prices already reversing, if that continues you can see headline inflation falling and underlying inflation rising. People should be looking out for whether inflation is coming in stronger or weaker than projections. Analysis Lane is keeping his options open on rates. The barometer for traders is how inflation comes in relative to the ECB’s projections, especially if headline and underlying inflation start moving in opposite directions. Lower
When frontier AI labs go public, ordinary people’s investments and pensions become tied to their valuations and stock prices. While excessive regulation could undermine a firm’s growth, catastrophic accidents caused by inadequate safety measures could do the same—and wipe out shareholder value.
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