Top News

BOJ debated need for more rate hikes, scope for faster moves, September minutes show

Eamonn SheridanAnalysisinvestingLiveNov 4 at 3:58 PM PST

BoJ minutes: board backed further hikes, flagged 50% oil surge as government urged caution

The minutes add a hawkish edge to the yen outlook, with talk of a faster pace and getting closer to neutral “relatively soon” supporting pricing for a December move. Against that, one member’s view that market expectations are running ahead of the economy may cap how far rate pricing extends, particularly at the longer end of the JGB curve. Oil is now an explicit driver of BoJ thinking, so renewed crude strength from the Middle East is likely to feed directly into Japanese rate expectations. The Cabinet Office’s call for caution is a reminder that political resistance to rapid tightening remains a factor. - The BoJ board in September was arguing over how fast to go, not whether to keep going, with oil doing much of the persuading. Summary: Members agreed the BoJ should keep raising rates as underlying inflation approached 2% and financial conditions stayed accommodative Several saw a shi

Oil prices tumble below $100 on post-election peace hopes

Prediction markets:
KalshiWill the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2027?
Hormuz traffic normal before Dec 1, 2027: 49% · up 1 percentage point from 48% quoted · Closes · Quote captured
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
11% · Closes · Quote captured

October inflation in the Eurozone keeps ECB on course for another tightening

Desmond LachmanAnalysisProject SyndicateNov 4 at 5:02 AM PST

The ECB Must Bail Out France

If France is to avoid default, the European Central Bank will need to buy large amounts of its government’s bonds through the Transmission Protection Instrument. But meeting this need—and preventing a potentially disastrous eurozone sovereign-debt-crisis—will require the ECB to waive its own rules.

Coming soon

MacroDigest for iPhone

We're building a native app for topic clusters, markets and saved reading.

About the app

Podcasts

All episodes

Conferences

IAPP Europe Congress

Brussels · International Association of Privacy Professionals