HSBC reported a 32% surge in third-quarter profit on Tuesday as rate hikes supported net interest income and due to the absence of legal provisions booked in the same period a year earlier.
Zandi’s view runs against market pricing for at least one more hike this year, so it’s more a marker for the doves than a market mover. It does sharpen focus on the tension in this week’s Fed decision. Oil is the pivot: crude climbing back toward wartime peaks on Iran tensions lifts inflation and keeps the Fed on its hiking path, while also squeezing real incomes in a way that strengthens Zandi’s growth warning. With 10-year yields near 5% and credit spreads wider, any hawkish surprise from the Fed risks further pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and leveraged borrowers. A skip with hawkish guidance, as Goldman Sachs expects, would keep December live. --- Earlier: Major central banks take centre stage this week but will there be any surprises? --- Zandi’s case is simple: the bond market has already tightened for the Fed, and hiking into an oil shock risks doing the econom