MacroDigest

Top News

United States

Colby SmithThe New York TimesNov 11 at 5:40 AM PSTEvent pageMonetary Policy

The Fed Has to Raise Rates. How Fast to Go Has Officials Divided

Eamonn SheridanAnalysisinvestingLiveNov 11 at 6:54 PM PST

Deutsche Bank sees 3 straight Fed hikes after hot CPI, adding a January move

A no-pause path into March is more hawkish than markets have priced beyond December. If other banks follow, it would likely be repriced through the front end of the Treasury curve and the dollar. That keeps USD/JPY pressed toward the 160 area where Tokyo is already warning, and it adds to the headwinds for gold. For equities, a faster sequence of hikes lands at an awkward moment, with AI stocks already under pressure from the Nvidia leadership shock. Oil remains the wildcard: renewed energy-driven inflation would strengthen the case for back-to-back hikes, while a sustained easing in crude would weaken it. --- Deutsche Bank has turned UBS’s “faster tightening” risk into its base case, and the Fed debate is now about the pace after December, not whether December happens. Summary: Deutsche Bank now expects 25bp Fed hikes in December, January and March, adding a January move to its previous

More: Reutersopen, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CNBCopen, Anadolu Agencyopen
Social commentary: Conor SenBluesky
ReutersNov 11 at 8:05 AM PSTEvent pageGeopolitics

OPEC+ oil output in October nears pre-Iran war rate, led by Saudi Arabia

On the map → Strait of Hormuz · Saudi energy infrastructure

AnalysisBloombergNov 10 at 8:15 PM PST

Oil Is Stuck in Limbo, With No More Iran War But No Peace

After Brent crude’s 10-day decline of nearly 25%, it’s tempting to say the market is pricing in peace. It isn’t. Rather than anticipating that hostilities between the US and Iran are over, traders are foreseeing no immediate risk of a third round of fighting. If the two countries reach a deal, however fragile, oil will trade significantly cheaper than its current value of around $90 a barrel.

Kalshi: Hormuz traffic normal before Oct 1, 2027 — the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch above 60 before Oct 1, 2027 · 51% ·

More: Euronews, Financial Times, Investing.com, The New York Times, Anadolu Agency
Social commentary: Rory JohnstonBluesky
ReutersNov 11 at 6:18 PM PSTEvent pageMarkets

Japan’s Mimura says markets shouldn’t forget intervention risks as yen nears 160

Eamonn SheridanAnalysisinvestingLiveNov 11 at 4:01 PM PST

Japan wholesale inflation speeds up to 7.1%, beating forecasts and firming BoJ hike bets

The upside surprise adds to the case for a Bank of Japan hike in December. It should give the yen some support at the margin, although a Fed that is also on a hiking path after a hot US CPI limits how much the rate gap narrows. Oil is the key swing factor, because crude and fuel imports drove most of October’s import price jump. Any further rise in energy prices tied to the Iran war would feed directly into Japan’s pipeline inflation and strengthen the hawks’ argument. For Japanese government bonds, a firmer inflation backdrop keeps upward pressure on yields. For equities, rising input costs are a risk to margins for manufacturers that cannot pass them on. --- Cheap rice is masking it, but energy, materials and a weak yen are pushing Japan’s pipeline inflation higher again, and that leaves little reason for the BoJ to wait. Summary: Japan’s corporate goods price index rose 7.1% y/y in Oc

More: The Business Times, The Wall Street Journal, investingLive

More News

Earlier

Coming soon

MacroDigest for iPhone

We're building a native app for topic clusters, markets and saved reading.

About the app

Podcasts

All episodes

Conferences

IAPP Europe Congress

Brussels · International Association of Privacy Professionals