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Oil falls as Trump signals restraint on Iran amid fresh Hormuz shipping attacks

On the map → Strait of Hormuz

AnalysisFederal Reserve Bank of New YorkNov 5 at 4:00 AM PST

The U.S. Oil Sector’s Role in Restraining Prices

The start of the Middle East conflict in early 2026 caused an unprecedented drop in global petroleum supply. In response, oil prices jumped—but not to unprecedentedly high levels. The U.S. oil sector was a key factor in moderating the shock. For one, its steady increases in drilling helped create a large oversupply in the global market before the conflict, making it less of a challenge to offset the drop in Middle East oil output. In addition, U.S. commercial and government inventories were rapidly drawn down, filling half the gap between global supply and demand in the second quarter by some estimates. Inventories, though, are a limited resource and U.S. stockpiles stopped falling in July. As a consequence, the continued shortfall in global production has been managed by running down inventories in the rest of the world.

Prediction markets:
KalshiWill the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2027?
Hormuz traffic normal before Dec 1, 2027: 49% · Closes · Quote captured
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12% · Closes · Quote captured
Social commentary: Rory JohnstonBluesky

RBA’s Hunter says AI has yet to deliver productivity boost, trigger job losses

Eamonn SheridanAnalysisinvestingLiveNov 8 at 2:34 PM PST

RBA’s Hunter warns AI could trigger sharp asset repricing as boom adds to inflation

Hunter’s description of AI as a near-term inflationary force supports the RBA’s tightening bias rather than pointing to relief. That underpins the Australian dollar on rate differentials and keeps the focus on the risk of further hikes. Her financial stability warning adds a central bank voice to growing market unease over AI valuations and funding, at a time when tech-linked assets are already under strain. Any further move toward repricing would favour defensive positioning in AI-exposed equities. It could also limit the Australian dollar’s upside if global risk sentiment sours. --- Last week: investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: RBA hikes to 18-year high --- The RBA sees AI as an inflation problem today and a potential financial stability problem tomorrow, with little sign yet of the productivity payoff that would justify the investment boom. Summary: RBA Assistant Governor Sarah H

Japan Spent Record $50 Billion in Single Day to Bolster Yen

Later report: Japan Spent Record 8 Trillion Yen in One Day to Prop Up Currency Seoul Economic Daily ·

Eamonn SheridanAnalysisinvestingLiveNov 8 at 7:06 PM PST

WSJ: Japan spent a record $50 billion in one day to defend the yen, data confirms

The data confirms Tokyo will spend heavily, and alongside Washington, to defend the yen. That keeps intervention risk firmly in play as USD/JPY trades near 158, well within reach of this year’s low near 164. It caps the upside for dollar-yen and makes long positions more two-way, including Morgan Stanley’s carry-driven long USD/JPY call. Rate expectations remain the dominant driver, though: around 80% odds of a December Fed hike are keeping the gap wide, while a December BOJ move, supported by Ueda’s upside-inflation comments, is the main path to narrowing it. Expect officials’ rhetoric to sharpen if the pair approaches 160 again. --- Japan’s record intervention numbers show how hard Tokyo, with Washington’s help, fought the yen’s slide, and how little lasting difference it made while the US-Japan rate gap stays wide. Summary: Japan spent a record $50 billion, almost 8 trillion yen, in a

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