Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a better-than-expected revenue outlook, sustaining a torrid pace of growth yet failing to dispel rising concerns about the sustainability of a global AI buildout.
Summary Following today’s PPI release, we are updating our nowcast by +2bps to +34bps m/m and by −1bp to 3.09% for the y/y September core PCE reading (a correction to the 3.12% y/y figure in our earlier email). We maintain our base
United States
The Fed’s odds of threading the needle and getting inflation back down to target while avoiding a recession get much lower; & Fed Chair Warsh’s oaths of fealty to Trump are not helpful at all...
Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain face double-digit declines in 2026
The report shifts the RBA debate from when the next hike comes to whether it comes at all, with a pause now looking the likelier near-term outcome. That leaves the Australian dollar out of step with the wider market. While gold and major currencies have risen against the US dollar on lower Treasury yields, the Aussie has stayed near its post-data lows, as a narrowing rate outlook at home offsets the broader dollar weakness. Further AUD underperformance is likely on crosses such as AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY if markets keep paring RBA hike bets. The noisy nature of the data means the next release, and the RBA’s revised forecasts in November, will carry extra weight. -- Australia’s jobs market blinked in September, and with it went most of the market’s appetite for a November RBA hike. Summary: Employment fell 39,300 in September against expectations of a 20,000 rise. August was revised down to 2
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